这几天很多人来问我，因为他们担心，随着最近的政治局势发展，如果国阵（BN）与国盟（PN）未来真的走向合作，这种合作会不会长久？马来西亚会不会因此进入一个长期由保守势力主导的时代？
这是一个值得思考的问题。
我尝试从三元九运的角度来观察这个趋势。
首先必须说明，九运属于《易经》与风水体系中的时间周期理论，它提供的是一种观察时代变化的角度，而不是对未来政治结果的确定预测。
自2024年开始，我们正式进入三元九运，也就是离火运。
很多人一听到「离火」，首先想到的是火。
然而，《易经》告诉我们，「离」除了代表火、光明、文明之外，还有一个经常被忽略的重要含义——分离、分化。
也就是说，离火运最大的特色，不一定是让原本不同的力量结合，而是让已经结合的力量，因为理念、利益、路线、领导权等因素，逐渐产生新的分化。
事实上，我们已经可以在全球看到类似的趋势。
国际政治越来越两极化，社会价值观越来越分化，政党内部越来越容易出现不同声音。资讯传播速度空前快速，每一个决定、每一句话、每一个承诺，都被放在聚光灯下接受检验。
因此，我认为，九运最大的主题不是「稳定」，而是「变化」。
如果未来国阵与国盟因为共同目标而加强合作，这并不令人意外。
但是，当双方的实力不断增强之后，一个新的问题也会自然浮现：
谁来主导？
谁决定未来的发展方向？
谁代表联盟的核心价值？
谁拥有更大的政治影响力？
从九运「离」的象来看，当两股力量同时不断壮大时，未来出现竞争与分化的可能性，也会随之提高。
这并不是说双方一定会分开，更不是说合作一定不会长久，而是提醒我们：离火时代的关系，往往比过去更容易随着环境、利益和民意而调整。
《易经》一直强调一个核心思想：
天下没有永远不变的合，也没有永远不变的分。
今天可以因为共同目标而合作，未来也可能因为不同的发展方向而竞争；今天彼此竞争，未来也可能因为新的局势再次合作。
这正是《易经》所谓的「变易」。
我个人认为，未来真正决定一个政治联盟能否长久的，并不是一次选举，也不是一时的政治优势，而是三个关键因素：
第一，是否拥有共同且长期一致的治国理念。
第二，是否能够妥善处理领导权与权力分配。
第三，是否能够持续回应人民真正关心的经济、民生与国家发展问题。
离火运还有一个重要特点，就是真相越来越透明，人民越来越重视「言行是否一致」。
过去，一个政党或联盟也许可以依靠宣传建立形象；但进入九运之后，人民更关心的是：
你承诺了什么？你兑现了多少？
因此，我认为，未来无论是国阵、国盟、希盟，还是任何政治联盟，都将面对同样的考验。
真正能够走得长远的，不一定是声势最强的，而是最能够适应时代变化、兑现承诺，并持续赢得人民信任的一方。
《易经》有一句话，我认为最适合作为今天的总结：
「穷则变，变则通，通则久。」
时代会变，政治会变，联盟也会变。
真正能够长久的，不是某一种政治组合，而是那些能够顺应时代、回应民心、不断自我调整与改革的人。
Over the past few days, many people have asked me the same question because they are concerned about Malaysia’s political future.
If Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) were to move towards closer cooperation, would such an alliance be sustainable in the long run? Could Malaysia eventually enter an era dominated by conservative politics?
It is an important question, and I would like to explore it through the perspective of Period 9 (Jiu Yun) in classical Chinese metaphysics.
Before I begin, I would like to clarify that Period 9 is part of a traditional Chinese framework for understanding long-term cycles of change. It offers a symbolic way of observing trends rather than making definitive predictions about political outcomes.
Since 2024, we have entered Period 9, governed by the trigram Li (Fire).
Most people associate Li simply with fire.
However, in the I Ching, Li represents much more than fire. It symbolizes light, visibility, culture, and enlightenment—but it also carries another important meaning that is often overlooked:
Separation, differentiation, and division.
In other words, the defining characteristic of the Fire Period may not be the formation of permanent alliances, but rather the tendency for even established partnerships to evolve, differentiate, or compete as circumstances change.
We are already witnessing similar patterns around the world.
Political landscapes are becoming increasingly polarized.
Societies are becoming more divided over values.
Political parties themselves are experiencing growing internal debates over leadership, direction, and priorities.
Meanwhile, social media and artificial intelligence have made politics more transparent than ever before. Every promise, every decision, and every public statement is examined almost instantly.
For this reason, I believe the central theme of Period 9 is not stability—it is continuous transformation.
If BN and PN strengthen their cooperation because of shared political objectives, that would not be surprising.
However, as both sides become stronger, another question naturally arises:
Who will lead?
Who will define the coalition’s future direction?
Whose vision will become dominant?
From the symbolism of the Fire Period, when two powerful forces continue growing simultaneously, the possibility of future competition and differentiation also increases.
This does not mean that BN and PN will inevitably part ways, nor does it mean that their cooperation cannot endure.
Rather, it suggests that relationships during Period 9 are likely to become more dynamic and more responsive to changing circumstances, public opinion, and political priorities.
The I Ching teaches a timeless principle:
There are no permanent alliances, and there are no permanent divisions.
Today’s partners may become tomorrow’s competitors.
Today’s competitors may become tomorrow’s partners.
This is the very essence of Change, the central philosophy of the I Ching.
In my view, the long-term durability of any political alliance will depend on three key factors:
First, whether its members genuinely share a long-term vision for governing the country.
Second, whether leadership and power can be managed fairly and sustainably.
Third, whether the alliance continues to address the real concerns of the people, especially the economy, livelihoods, and national development.
Another defining feature of Period 9 is transparency.
People today are no longer satisfied with political slogans alone.
Instead, they ask a much simpler question:
Did you deliver what you promised?
Therefore, I believe every political coalition—whether BN, PN, PH, or any future alliance—will face the same challenge.
Those that endure will not necessarily be the strongest today, but those that continue adapting to changing times, honoring their commitments, and earning the trust of the people.
I would like to conclude with one of the most profound teachings from the I Ching:
“When circumstances reach their limit, change begins. Through change comes progress, and through progress comes lasting stability.”
Times change.
Politics changes.
Alliances change.
What ultimately endures is not a particular political arrangement, but the ability to adapt, reform, and remain connected to the will of the people.
No comments:
Post a Comment